When investing in the stock market for the first time, you'll more than likely hear of two types of market - bear and bull. A bear market is one that is typically heading downwards, with negative activity and poor forecasting. The contrasting bull market is one that is heading upwards, with positive forecasts likely. The natural reaction to have with a negative bear market is not to invest, while in a bull market the reaction would be to follow the crowd and pour your money in. However, this mentality is paradoxically illogical, and this article will explain why.
One of the most spectacular bull market booms and busts in history was the growing Dotcom Bubble during the late nineties, followed by its spectacular crash from March 2000 to October 2002, in which some $5 trillion was removed from the value of technology stocks and shares. What ostensibly happened in this instance was an overwhelming speculative sentiment about the potential of the Internet, with hundreds of companies sprouting up with similar business plans and securing investment. Venture capitalists saw the rise of these shares, and were keen to get in on the action quickly, bypassing normal constraints and caution, while also increasing the value of stocks even further. As more and more people jumped on the technology bandwagon, the prices skyrocketed until eventually the bubble burst, destroying the value of many people's investments.
The Dotcom Bubble is a classic example of when bull market sentiment gets completely carried away. Prices rose, more and more people jumped on the bandwagon, which sent prices higher, and then prices collapsed. When times start getting good, and you see other people making a fortune, it's easy to be seduced by soaring prices. However, just imagine you invested in the NASDAQ around its March 2000 peak of 5000 points. Within nearly two weeks you would have stood to lose 9% of your investment, while within a year you would have seen it lose its value by some 50%.
The thing to learn about bull markets is that it's difficult to know when it will run out of steam. The key is not to go with the flow of the market and invest during times of rising prices. If you were to buy on a rise, then sell when the market begins to fall, you would be following the illogical investment policy of buy high, sell low, which puts you in stead to lose money. Instead of this strategy, watching intently on booming markets and waiting for the moment they run out of steam and begin to fall is a better strategy. When stocks become overpriced, as tech stocks did in the Dotcom Bubble, they will inevitably burst, but buying in the aftermath of a collapse could lead to securing a bargain. Buying during ?bear market? periods is therefore a more likely way of finding a buy low sell high strategy.
If you're looking to invest, the current bear market in stocks indicates a good time to buy. Warren Buffet, the world's richest man largely due to his investment strategy, has said there's never been a better time to buy US stocks, while in the UK, the FTSE 100 is only worth 60% of what it was this time last year. If you're looking to find out more on investments, then take a look at Legal and General.
Bear And Bull Market
Do you look at the mutual fund rankings that magazines publish every year? The performances can often be eyepopping. Have your ever seen a year that the best performing mutual funds had a loss? Of course not, there's always funds that have a good year, even in the bear market years. It might be energy sector or medical sector, or foreign country mutual funds that have a good year.
For example, let's look at the Fidelity family of funds. Since 1988, Fidelity has always had equity funds that were positive for the year. The worst year was 2002, when both the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 were down over 20% for the year. Even then, Fidelity still had 6 of 94 equity funds with positive returns. A challenging environment to be sure, but there were still opportunities.
If you look at the years 2000-2002, they were pretty tough on the market overall, yet the returns of the top 3 mutual funds were pretty good each of those years.
Conversely, if you look at the worst performers even in the best years it becomes obvious that there is always a bear market somewhere as well.
Fund selection plays an important role in crafting your portfolio's performance. Even though “rising tide lifts all ships” there is a big difference between the best and the worst, regardless of the overall market's return for a given year.
It turns out that if you restrict your holding period to something less than one year, you'll find that this trend of bull and bear markets continues to hold true.
The fact is, given the so-so performance of the market over the last several years, the only real tool available to the average investor to create real wealth has been fund selection.
The trick of course is finding those high performing funds before they are finished going up. Fundamental analysis works well for many people, but it's hard to back test for historical performance, and it can take a lot of work, more than your average investor has available to devote to his portfolio. So, how do we increase the odds that the average investor like us can find funds that will increase in value after we buy.
The one real advantage that the small investor has is that he can be quite nimble, moving his assets from one fund to another overnight, with no impact on the markets. The other thing to realize is we don't have to be the smartest guys in the house, we just have to follow smart traders. That makes the whole problem a lot easier to solve.
A trend following system can work well for the small investor. It leverages the advantages of being small, but can still be done without incurring the early redemption fees of many mutual fund companies. And by using simple rules to create a trend following system, the performance can be back tested and some performance over varying market conditions can be evaluated.
Both Georgie Tylor & John Ruppel are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
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