The Obama administration apportioned a large chunk of the $787 billion stimulus package to help the ailing mortgage industry. The housing plan involves extending $75 billion to about nine million Americans who are threatened to lose their homes via foreclosure. The US mortgage market is estimated to be $10,000 billion.
Barely a month from approving the stimulus package, the plan seems to have a positive effect already. On March 17, the Commerce Department announced that the construction of new homes and apartments last month February has risen sharply by 22.2 percent compared to the month of January. This increase has been observed throughout the country, except in the western states which was heavily affected by the housing slump.
One factor that attributed to this increase is the dirt cheap house prices. Since the start of the mortgage crisis, million dollar houses are now just a shadow of their past values. First American CoreLogic reported that "about 8.31 million properties had negative equity at the end of 2008". This means that a lot of homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. The cheap prices have prompted a lot of investors awash with cash to snap houses at bargain prices in bulk. In fact, housing sales in some parts of the country had also jumped to surprising levels. For example in Cape Coral, Florida house sales has also gone up by a whooping 103 percent.
Another factor to consider is the decreasing mortgage rate. According to a survey conducted by Freddie Mac, the "30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.16 percent for the week ending February 12, 2009". In mortgage terms, this is a substantial decrease to last year's 5.72 percent. This low rate is ?offering many homeowners an incentive to refinance. This would translate into a monthly payment savings of around $188 on a $200,000 mortgage?, according to the Vice President of Freddie Mac.
Rate source: Mortgage Rates
The low mortgage rate also encourages other people to buy new homes. As evidenced by the increase in mortgage applications and mortgage refinance applications. There's data supporting the observation that the sudden spike is not just a flash in the pan. The economic crisis has changed the savings habits of the general public. The U.S. savings rate has been going up and is now 3.6 percent, up from 2.8 percent in November last year. This translates to enough spending power that could sustain the growth in the housing sector. The confidence in the economy is also high considering the fact that the stock market has been on the up hill run for the past two weeks. The Dow Jones industrial index is now up to 7,278 points as of March 20.
Meanwhile record high unemployment continues. Unemployment rate stands at 8.1 percent for the month of February and is expected to reach 10 percent by year end. Just recently Caterpillar Inc. announced to lay off more than 2,400 jobs in the US, while Nokia will lay off another 1,700 staff in its worldwide operation. The increasing unemployment rate may dampen the gains made in the housing industry as more unemployed means, less people can afford to purchase homes or even pay regularly their mortgage commitments. There is strong correlation in the housing demand and unemployment rate. In the western states where the housing problem is worst, the unemployment rate is also high. It seems tacking the crisis will take more than just one strategy. This means the government will need to focus on generating employment and not just focus on propping up the housing industry.
The Real World Chicago
Real estate refers to immovable property such as land as well as any physical structures attached to land like houses, buildings or commercial establishments. For centuries land has been considered as the primary measure of wealth and even today developed countries that are rich in real estate attract foreign investors to spur economic growth. U.S real estate market too is considered as a backbone of its developed economy but since last few years it is witnessing a downturn due to some reasons. It is said that the housing bubble in U.S will soon come to an end. A bubble is something where the prices are being regulated by speculators and not the real end consumers and if it is being fuelled by the real consumers then it can be called a pure play of demand and supply. The reasons for the downturn in real estate market can be justified as follows:
1) Rising property prices: - Since last few years there has been a sky-high rise in prices of property in majority of the states of U.S. this has reduced the number of buyers in the market. A rise in mass property causes a downfall and obstructs economic growth of any economy. Again the money market plays a major role in giving rise to the prices of commodities, assets, buildings and the materials used in construction. On the other hand population is increasing which increases the demand of houses which is a basic need of shelter of any individual. There is a downfall in housing demand even though there are innumerable numbers of buyers waiting in the market to purchase any property. Mortgage activity too is slowing down in the real estate market as the interest rates are steadily going up. People get entangled in the lengthy process of paying installments for years together after purchasing any property. Lending standards have been tightened up by banks and mortgage companies to add fuel to the burning problem of finance across the country. The effect of such vicious cycle is being reflected in the economic structure of the country
2) Inflation: - Inflation is a world recognized evil that is observed throughout the globe. It leads to an increase in most essential goods to the goods of sheer luxury..
3) Increase in interest rates: - Interest rates on loans and mortgages have always driven the real estate market. As the rates go up the market takes a slow landing and as the rates fall the market goes up. But since last few years' rates have been steadily rising at ΒΌ% every three months because the Federal Reserve has adopted a policy to increase the rates. Hence people overextend themselves to buy the house at adjustable loans with adjustable payments. The increase in adjustable rates will further send the consumers in monthly payments hundreds of dollars higher and cause many more for closure homes to enter already saturated market.
4) Default on payments and bankruptcy: - According to Indy Mac bank of California which is the 7th largest mortgage originator in U.S up to 4% of homeowners might lose their home in 2007 due to default in payment of interest which is a result of job lay offs and zero level of savings. That is four times the average rate of borrowers who normally default on their loan. This leads to a drastic downfall in the real estate market.
5) Sub prime loan- the root of all evil: - Sub prime loans are the loans granted to people whose credit is less than desired. From 1994 to 2003 sub prime mortgage lending grew up at an annual rate of 25% up tenfold in 9 years. As of September 2006 80% of all sub prime mortgages were optioned ARM which tend to have huge payment ultimately resulting in increase in for closure rates. For closure and mortgage delinquencies number in millions. U.S families are losing their homes at record rates. The for closure problem is spiraling out of control across America due to increase rates increasing causing ARM pay to rise by 30%, 40% and as high as 50%. The other major causes are America's jobs are still continued to outsource to other countries.
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