Thoughts on the Future of the Real Estate Market



Baby boomers are those individuals born during the period from roughly 1945 to 1964. Following World War II, peace and economic prosperity occurred for roughly twenty years. Along with this came an explosion in the birth rates in the United States. This increase in birth rates created a bulge in the overall population, to wit, the baby boomer generation.

As economists and pundits look to the future, they worry about what will happen when baby boomers move out of the job market. Who will replace them? What happens to their money? Will the drain on the stock market from 401k distributions wipe out the stock market? What about real estate where baby boomers are starting to pass their peak earning years? Is everything going to crash? No.

The first reason the real estate market will not die is the boomers. They do not just disappear when they retire. Most are continuing to invest in real estate as they start receiving retirement distributions. In 2004, this fact was evidenced by the fact that of all home sales, 35 percent were for second homes. Clearly, the boomers will remain active for some time.

There is also a new generation starting to be introduced to the real estate market. While it is true that baby boomers are the largest population bulge we have seen, one has to keep in mind that the boomers had their own offspring. The second largest population bulge we have seen are these children. They are now entering there twenties and thirties, which means they are entering the real estate market as buyers ? often borrowing from their parents for down payments.

Immigration is a controversial subject. Regardless of your view, the undisputed evidence shows a large number of legal immigrants coming into the country since 1970. Obviously, these individuals and families represent another pool of buyers.

Despite the wailing of so-called experts, the real estate market should continue to purr along as it always has. Real estate is still one of the best investments. Yes, there will be fluctuations, but the prophecies of doom and gloom are unsupported by the facts.