Forex Trading - Why Its Time to Consider Buying US Dollars

By: Kelly Price

If you read the newswires and watch the price action you would think the US Dollar is on the road to oblivion but the fact is its not and is due to rally strongly and there are solid reasons for it doing so and this presents a huge low risk high reward profit opportunity.

For me a bit of news I read the other day made me smile and think of getting ready to buy the dollar.

Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world's richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar!

This was considered to be worthy of front page on many newswires and personally I think it just shows how everyone wants to knock the dollar and the media are grabbing any dollar bearish story they can.

Well the dollar does look bearish doesn't it?

Well the bearish fundamentals have now peaked and were having a blow off as investors simply push the dollar to far down and it is oversold.

In the frenzy of selling people have forgotten the good news which seems to have gone by unnoticed.

Here is news the market is forgetting:

1. Last quarters GDP which has been the best since Q1 2006 and Friday's payroll was above expectations. Of course we have problems with confidence and credit, but GDP and jobs will improve that longer term.

While the dollar is in a down trend, we are not about to see the demise of the dollar long term - but short term the trend is bearish and this clearly visible on the charts and rallies in the currency being sold strongly.

2. There is no guarantee that the FED Will cut rates further and they have already warned of this.

3. Crude oil can hit $100 a barrel but it won't stay there. As OPEC sensibly have pointed out demand does not warrant increased output and its speculative buying. A fair price for crude is about $70 - 80 and prices look set to fall back to this level over the next few months.

4. The man in the street (or women) Like Giselle think there is no end in site and as someone once famously said once the man in the street starts to buy a stock I Think about selling it and the same scenario applies here.

Everyone is having a pop at the dollar even the Chinese ( not unexpected) Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the standing committee of the National People's Congress -- China's Parliament followed by remarks from Xu Jian, a Chinese central bank official, who said the dollar is losing its status as a global currency and China should balance its currency reserves. Well this is from a country that deliberately keeps its currency competitive and knows very little about free market economies - but that's a different story!

So we have an economy in the US which is showing signs of growth, employment is on the move and oil prices are inflated to far - everyone is ignoring this in their frenzy to sell.

Is the selling over?

In the short term we don't know but if you keep your eye on your forex charts and look at the reality you have a price spike that is to far from fair value and a rally in the dollar will be easy to spot.

Markets fall when their most bullish and rally when their most bearish and the US Dollar will be no exception what for signs of a top on the charts and a good rally from the dollar and a great low risk high reward profit opportunity.

Don't worry if the majority of traders and news don't agree with you the majority don't win.

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