Montreal Alouettes 2008 Cfl Preview

By: Ron Raymond
Montreal Alouettes 2008 CFL Preview

Whether Don Matthews left for personal reasons or he was pushed out the door, the fact of the matter remains, the Alouettes have been sliding ever since! In fact, Montreal suffered its first losing season last year since the 2001 campaign and let's face it; without Anthony Calvillo in the line up, it hurt the club in some respect. I've been harping for years, the Alouettes would be a wounded duck if AC wasn't in the line up and that's why it's crucial to have an experience CFL QB as your back up, because this is a QB league. With only 3 downs to make a first down, if you run on the first play and lose a yard, your S.O.L. if you don't make 11 yards on the next play.

As much as I would like to give new head coach Marc Trestman the old welcome to the CFL and go get'em type speech in this article, but by looking at his journey to becoming the next CFL head coach of the most successful CFL franchise since 1996, I believe it could be a long year for the Alouettes again this season. Trestman never won anything in his professional coaching career which started in '85 with the Minnesota Vikings as a Running back coach, left that organization to be the QB coach in Tampa Bay in '87 and then left for the Cleveland Browns the following season. Trestman then made coaching stops in San Francisco, back to Minnesota, Detroit, Arizona, Oakland, Miami, and in 2005 took an Offensive Coordinator job with the NC State Wolfpack at the collegiate level. Interesting note, the Wolfpack finished 6-4 SU on the season, but here's what's considered a "nugget" in sports handicapping, the UNDER for the Wolfpack that season went 9-1-0. Therefore, this tells me Trestman is a very conservative football coach who loves to run the football or they had one heck of a defense at NC State that year.

As for the 2008 Montreal Alouettes, it should be an interesting season to see how they rebound from a below average season last year. From a GM point of view, I really thought Jim Popp would have brought in another experience QB to challenge Brad Banks and Marcus Brady for the back up job, as Banks has been in the league 5 years and have yet to crack a starting job. If you hold a clip board for 5 years, might as well just take a coaching job!

The Alouettes played good defense at home last season, as 8 of their 9 home games went UNDER the total, but 7 of their 10 road games went OVER the posted line.

Good Luck Marc, nothing personal, it's just the facts!

Montreal Alouettes2007 Season Stats

Straight up Record: 8-11 (SU)

Against the Spread Record: 8-11 (ATS)

O/U/P: 8 OVERS 11 UNDERS 0 PUSH

Home Record:

Straight up Record: 5-4 (SU)

ATS Record: 3-6 (ATS)

O/U/P Record: 1-8-0 (O/U/P)

Road Record:

Straight up Record: 3-7 (SU)

ATS Record: 5-5-0 (ATS)

O/U/P Record: 7-3-0 (O/U/P)

Last 2 Years: 17-21-1 (ATS) 19-20 (SU) 16-23-0 (O/U/P)

Last 3 Years: 27-31-2 (ATS) 31-29 (SU) 28-32-0 (O/U/P)

Last 4 Years: 39-38-2 (ATS) 45-34 (SU) 37-42-0 (O/U/P)

Last 5 Years: 47-50-2 (ATS) 59-40 (SU) 46-52-1 (O/U/P)

Vs. Division Opponents since 1996:

54-50-1 (ATS) 64-40-1 (SU) 41-61-3 (O/U/P)

Value Index

Success has a price! In this case, being a successful football team like the Montreal Alouettes have been since 1996, they will be favored in most of their games. However, this might not be the case this season, but it will all depends what kind of buzz they create in their first two exhibition games and what kind of offense they start in week 1 vs. the Hamilton Tiger Cats. If you ask me, you might get the Ticats as a nice Home Underdog price in Week 1. But, if you're looking for value when the Alouettes are playing, the best time to go against them is when they are over priced and that's normally after sequence of wins. For example; When the Montreal Alouettes are a -10.0 point or more Home Favorite after a 2 game winning steak, they are 1-7-0 ATS. Remember, this is all about perception and the mentality of the gambler is to ride the wave and the job of the bookmaker is to bust the wave. That's why you will see a line move go up on the hot teams, so the bookmaker can get balanced action on both side of the game.

Here's how the Alouettes did in certain betting circumstances since 1996.

Underdog: 35-29-2 (ATS) 26-39-1 (SU) 31-33-1 (O/U/P)

Favorite: 79-94-5 (ATS) 126-52 (SU) 87-84-4 (O/U/P)

Home Dog: 4-4-0 (ATS) 3-5 (SU) 4-4-0 (O/U/P)

Home Fave: 46-57-3 (ATS) 82-25 (SU) 53-50-0 (O/U/P)

Road Dog: 27-22-1 (ATS) 18-31-1 (SU) 23-26-1 (O/U/P)

Road Fave: 29-34-1 (ATS) 40-24 (SU) 30-31-2 (O/U/P)

Montreal Alouettes Head to Head Record vs. Each CFL Team

Team by Team Breakdown:

It's too bad the Ottawa Renegades folded in 2005, as the Alouettes were starting to create a great rivalry with the Renegades. However, they've seemed to have found a new nemesis in the Toronto Argonauts, as it seems the Alouettes and Argos are hooking each year for the Eastern Division finals. Nevertheless, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers had a word to say last season and they broke that Eastern Division trend. The Alouettes have been the Class of the CFL since 1996 and they showed signs of weakening last season. However, it will be interesting to see how the Alouettes do in games vs. Toronto and Winnipeg, as they seem to be the front runners to win the Eastern Division. The Als have had great success vs. the Blue Bombers, as they are 24-12 SU since 1996. However, from a bookmaker's point of view, it's tough to beat the numbers when you're a favorite in nearly 75% of all your games.

Vs. Hamilton: 19-20-1 (ATS) 25-14-1 (SU) 15-24-1 (O/U/P)

Vs. Toronto: 23-20-0 (ATS) 26-17 (SU) 18-24-1 (O/U/P)

Vs. Winnipeg: 15-19-2 (ATS) 24-12 (SU) 20-13-2 (O/U/P)

Vs. Edmonton: 13-13-1 (ATS) 13-14 (SU) 13-14-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Calgary?: 14-10-0 (ATS) 15-9-0 (SU) 16-8-0 (O/U/P)

Vs. Saskatchewan: 11-13-1 (ATS) 20-5 (SU) 11-12-1 (O/U/P)

Vs. BC Lions: 8-19-0 (ATS) 14-13 (SU) 15-12-0 (O/U/P)

Look ahead and Letdown Angles

One of the key angles of handicapping football games is the Look ahead and let down factor. Teams tend to overlook their current game when they have a big game on deck, or they tend to have an emotional let down after a high emotion win or game. It's very hard in football to duplicate a great outing, so this is where most cappers find good value in betting football games.

Here's some betting angle to consider when betting for and/or against the Montreal Alouettes.

The Montreal Alouettes are 10-14 SU and 7-17 ATS after playing the Edmonton Eskimos.

The Montreal Alouettes are 27-8 SU after playing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Comment: If you ever wonder how a winning streaks starts, it begins with team confidence and building momentum off the past game and as you can gather from the Alouettes past, they seem to gain some of that confidence after playing the Blue Bombers. For whatever reason, it seems the Alouettes have an emotional letdown after playing the Edmonton Eskimos, as they are 10-14 SU and 7-17 ATS. In fact, the Als have a winning record in the next game after playing every other team, but for whatever reason, they have a losing record in the next game after playing the Eskimos.

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