Technical Analysis in Forex Trading

by : rsbombard

This is one method for analyzing the prices of the two. The other method is the fundamental analysis. These two approaches differ hugely in their approaches and scopes. Technical analysis basically deals with the previous price and volume changes and uses a set of statistical calculations to project the possible price trends.

Currencies tend to trend more and fluctuate less violently unlike stocks which behave pretty much the different way. The reason for this is not hard to understand. Currencies trend depending on the countries. foreign and economic policies which are macro economic in nature and the currency pairs take fairly long enough time to react to any change in policies. Where as stock movements are more or less determined by microeconomic factors and market sentiments.

Why Technical Analysis Is Critical For Forex Trading?
It is true that technical factors reflect changes to the fundamental parameters of a currency but but still technical approach to analyzing the movements of a forex currency grossly takes into consideration only the historic price and volume movements.

The following are the reasons for this intrinsic behavioral difference.
1. A trader may want to go short or long within the span of a day and cover up positions there by cashing in on the intraday fluctuations which are hardly affected by the economic and policy changes which are fundamental in nature.
2. Technical analysis stresses on the historical statistical data for projections which takes into consideration the short and medium term perspective which is a welcome factor for a trader who does not want to hold huge forex currency assets for longer periods.
3. Intra day fluctuations can be fairly well predicted and entry exit points, regardless of short or long positions, can be easily identified with technical analysis which is not the scope of fundamental analysis.

One question that arises in ones mind at this point is, if technical analysis steers out of fundamentals, then why is it so popular with so many traders? There are two strong arguments about its popularity.
1. Historical data are market's future indicators as they give insights into the short term behaviors of markets.
2. Although the market trends are clearly the reflection fundamental changes a currency is undergoing, they sure are the results of collective intelligence and reactions of the whole market to affecting incidences including rumors.

What Approach Must A Trader Take With Respect To Technical Analysis?
Unlike the fundamental analysis which places heavy weightage onto the intrinsic values of currencies, technical analysis doesn't do so. It is based on the price changes and volumes only and not why the prices have changed when they did. In short, it depends basically on the patterns of price behavior supported by some sophisticated mathematical paramenters.

Technical analysis of forex market has gained popularity with traders of late following the easy availability of sophisticated analytical softwares.