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[D106]Decision Making Under Uncertainty
by Kamyar Shah, Kam
Decisions are made everyday, and it is described as intelligently processing information that will result in rational decision making. A manager undertakes the responsibility of making rational choices by being logical and consistent in a decisive manner. Assessments of descriptive, normative, and behavioral decision theories will be the theoretical foundation of this paper. Also, the three different theories will be discussed in relation to teamwork, diversity, and the ethics of organization.

Main Conclusions

The theories examined in this paper illustrate three different types of decision making; each of them influences the process of decision making in an organization differently. The descriptive decision theory concentrates on the immediate solutions, while the normative decision theory has an idealistic standpoint - opposites of extreme. The behavioral decision making theory acts as a middle-man where its main purpose is to be the mediator between the descriptive and normative decision theory. In spite of their differences, all three theories share one common feature: rational decision in any give circumstances.

Recommendations

In order to run a successful organization, management has to understand the different theories behind decision-making process. Even though the theories are bounded by rationality, each theory values teamwork, diversity, and ethics at different levels. Thus, different levels of managements use different types of decision making process for the survival of the company. It is important to clearly distinguish the theories' boundaries and limitations to successfully decide which variables are important at each level of an organization.

Decision-making

Decision making is not specifically reserved for the management; is done daily by everyone. From choosing home appliances to family dinner preparations, decision making is a part of everybody's daily routine. To better comprehend the managements' role of decision making in an organization, three theories of decision making will be discussed: descriptive, normative, and behavioral theory. However, for the purpose of easy comparison and contrasts, the theories will be analyzed in relations to management types: i.e. technical mangers, organization managers and institutional managers.

Background:

Decision making is more than randomly choosing an option, but a cognitive process or a thought-out process to achieve rational decisions. Individuals, from all levels of an organization make decisions. Not all decisions are multifaceted, but their decisions affect their job securities as well as the organization's interest. A successful decision making process involves rationally analyzing the problems to achieve the most efficient choice that will compliment the situation. According to Walls "the premise behind rationality in organizations is based on the notion that reasonable people will respond to their environment by assessing known facts, estimating possible outcomes, and weighing those outcomes against their respective costs Decision making process differ from one level of management to another, however, they all share common responsibility; rational choices that are consistent, and "value-maximizing choice within specified constraints

Descriptive Theory

The descriptive or positive theory is a black-and-white concept where individuals visualize how things are rather than how things should to be. Descriptive theory focuses on the choices made in a situation, and considers decision as a single event According to Shrode & Brown, the "descriptive decision theory is based on describing, as precisely as possible, the actual decision-making behavior of the decision-maker" and "how people...make decisions". In a relation to management type, descriptive theory is associated with the technical managers, where their primary concern is to solve problems immediately and "have a short-run time horizon" Computational decision making strategies utilized by the technical managers allow them to solve problems swiftly and effectively since the solution to problems are accomplished by "computing various types of input and output data, and then manipulating the data in accordance with the criteria of rationality" According to Petit, solutions to technical managers problems are "quantitative in nature" and "concerned with concrete problems that require immediate solutions"

Normative Theory:

The normative theory, also called prescriptive theory, narrates how things should be, and lean towards philosophical approach in decision making. This particular theory utilizes well informed and rational individuals to organize alternatives that will lead to a successful end result that will benefit the organization in the long run. The normative theory carries ethical responsibilities as well as guidelines to seek optimum solutions. Thus, the normative theory "attempt to describe the behavior (or hoped for behavior) of a human decision maker...who wished to use intellectual tools to make decisions". In relations to management type, normative is closely linked with institutional managers (IM) because they "have a philosophic point of view" and "rely in wisdom, experience, and philosophic insight in making important decision." Decision strategy for institutional managers' are judgmental because IM "have a long-run time horizon...The future is always hard to read and is highly qualitative: therefore it is interpreted subjectively." Institutional Mangers' primary responsibility to the firm is to insure firm's survival by managing uncertainties of firm's environment.

Behavioral theory

Behavioral theory implicates how people deal with uncertainties, and takes into an account both the descriptive and normative theories. Behavioral decision theory is bounded by rationality of the world, and the decisions are made based upon decision-maker's perception on given situation. According to Brooks, Highhouse, et al, "behavioral decision...has shown that people's judgment do not always derive from their underlying beliefs, but rather from the need to formulate their opinions as a result of having to express them." According to Petit "behavioral theory of management has most in common with the social system school...social system school focuses on the organization and what we have called the organization level of management" The organizational managers synchronize technical and institutional managers' transactions by acting as the mediator or an intermediary. Thus, the decision-making strategy of an organizational manager is to compromise in the interest of organizational viability.

Theories in relevance to teamwork, diversity, and ethics

Depending on the level of management or the structure of organization, variables such as teamwork, diversity, and ethical factors might illustrate an issue. It can increase the complexity of management's decision-making issues. However, incorporating the variables into different management decision-making can increase open-line of communication, generate additional alternatives and ideas, and increase accuracy.

The descriptive decision theory focuses on immediate resolution of problem with little or no concerns to ethical issues, teamwork, and diversity. This is mainly due to the fact that the speed and the efficiency of decision-makings are valued rather than comprehension of knowledge and ideas. Descriptive theory is "concerned with the choices actually made in a given situation." Even though this approach will eliminate miscommunications and speed up the reaction process, it will limit creativity, and can only be helpful in achieving short-term goal.

The normative theory is committed to ethical approach of management and relies on the "wisdom, experience, and philosophic insight" of people. In an Industrial Engineer: IE article, "A diverse group of people is likely to outperform...and brightest problem solvers...offer different perspectives that...result in better solutions." Since this approach deals with the long-term goals, it is important to utilize diverse teamwork's wisdom, knowledge, and rationality. Such integration of diverse employees may create a better platform for effective results.

In this particular approach a balanced and optimized reliance on all factors is possible and viable. Behavioral decision making process is political in nature because it acts as a mediator for both descriptive and normative decision making. It deals with uncertainties to make a best possible choice under given circumstance.

Future Trends:

Decision will be made at all levels of an organization, but the question of making the "right" decision will be based on the quality of teamwork, diverse work environment, and commitment to ethical choices. Managers and the employees have a social responsibility as well as the desire to survive, thus creating a natural environment which requires the greatest possible efficiency.

Limitations, Conclusions and Recommendations:

The three theories of decision making are generally different, but they all share one common goal: making rational decisions. While the descriptive theory focuses on how things are, the normative theory concentrated on how things should be in a philosophical way. Behavioral theory, on the other hand, stands in the middle of descriptive and normative theory in order to counter-balance their strengths and weaknesses of decision making. There is no right or wrong method to decision making because it all depends on the type of management, type of an organization structure, and the goals. In a large organization, it is necessary to have all of the three theories available to achieve both the short and long term goals set by the company: successful organization should deploy all legal and ethical tools in order to maximize efficiency and effectiveness. This will ensure the greatest possible platform for organizational success and survival, which in turn creates a platform for responsible corporate governance and increased satisfaction of all stakeholders.

Think I'm exaggerating? Well ... maybe just a little!:-) But, see for yourself anyway! You might be in for a pleasant surprise. The way I make decisions in complex situations has – at least – the merit of turning decision making into an effective, satisfying, even reassuring experience.

Time to Decide

Decisions, decisions, decisions. So many possibilities, so many variables, so many things to take into account ... you freeze. You are sometimes overwhelmed by all the possible directions your search for an answer can take. Time is often of the essence.

How many times have you been faced with having to make important decisions in a complex and dynamically changing environment? You have a gut feeling about what you should do, but you would prefer to make sure you have covered every possible angle. Mistakes are costly, and you cannot afford them. How can you avoid them?

Large Companies Have Ways and Means

When you are the president of a large company, you can tap the brainpower of the people working for you to:

+ identify the various aspects of the problem you want to solve,
+ identify the various potential solutions,
+ attribute a factor of importance to each aspect and potential solution,
+ identify the pros and cons of any given solution,
+ attribute a weighing factor to each pro and con,
+ etc, etc, etc ...

Often, higher management will hire a consultant to help identify and sort everything out. When they have the resources (and sometimes even when they do not ...!), they will ask their information technology department specialists to develop an in-house, computer based decision support system (DSS).

What Can Smaller Businesses Do?

It's a complex business world out there. No question about it. But decision making does not have to be complicated, nor does it have to be mysterious and overwhelming. Even smaller businesses have problems to solve, and decisions to make ... like everyone else.

How do you deal with complex decision making?

What happens when you do not have lots of knowledgeable people working for you, and you do not have the means to hire highly specialized consultants to help you with your decision making?

One solution involves the use of computerized applications to help break down a problem, and take into account a multitude of possibilities.

The Decision Support System (DSS)

Your daily decision making may be business related or not. But some decisions have to be made under complex circumstances.

Things can rapidly get out of hand if you always have to rely on specialists to help you solve complex problems ... even if you can afford them. More specifically, you cannot afford the dependence. You must strive to maintain your autonomy, but not at the expense of efficiency and effectiveness.

A well designed, user friendly, computer based Decision Support System (DSS) is the tool that can make the difference.

If such a thing were to exist, wouldn't we be approaching “PUB”?

What is a DSS anyway?

A “Decision Support System” (DSS) is an interactive, computer-based, system that uses user-supplied data to help answer questions, or solve complex problems.

You feed it what you know about a given problem, and it helps you “see”, not only all possible solutions but, more importantly, the the best possible solution.

A DSS can take many forms. Some are highly specialized while others are general purpose. Some DSS are enterprise wide – collaborative systems – while others run on desktop PCs and are intended for a single user.

The enterprise systems will generally be multi-purpose and require multi-processor computing power and powerful database management systems (DBMS) handling hundreds of gigabytes of data.

We will not concern ourselves with these large systems in this article.

The Single-User DSS

Many people have relied for years on spreadsheets like Excel or Lotus 1-2-3 to develop specific “DSS-like” applications, such as for financial analysis, marketing analysis, or human resources management.

Others sometimes push into “DSS service” small DBMS like MS-Access.

The trouble with spreadsheets and DBMS is that they were not primarily designed to serve as a DSS. They can be pushed into serving as a DSS (after a fashion ...), but they require a fair amount of “programming”. Not everyone is comfortable with the technical aspects of application building using general purpose tools.

On the other hand, there are only a few significant software DSS for the desktop PC on the market today.

They help the decision maker to:
+ break down a problem into it's essential elements (sometimes called atomic form),
+ give a relative importance to each element,
+ identify and assess different alternatives or scenarios,
+ ultimately get a “clearer” picture of the best possible solution, given the data supplied to the DSS by the decision maker.

However, a good DSS will typically cost thousands of dollars and is usually too sophisticated for the small business requirements.

So where do you turn to for an affordable DSS?

The Layman's DSS

As you might have guessed by now, I was not going to leave you without a viable solution!

I use a DSS that:
+ is general purpose,
+ needs no programming,
+ is very effective,
+ is very user friendly,
+ and is very affordable. In fact ... it costs nothing!

How can something that costs nothing be of any real use to a small business person?

Why give away something so valuable?

More and more businesses develop freeware to illustrate their capabilities. They give away free software tools and applications to convince people of their expertise. They hope that this will persuade them to do business with them.

Not all users of free software become customers, of course, but enough do that it is a very worthwhile marketing strategy.

Here are a few examples of well known large organizations who freely give away very useful, fully functional software:

Adobe Systems Inc.:
Adobe Reader free software, capable of displaying the contents of documents encoded in Portable Document Format (PDF).

Sun Microsystems Inc.:
OpenOffice free software is a functional equivalent of the entire Microsoft Office Suite. (I wrote the first version of this report with OpenOffice Writer, and exported it as a PDF document. My Web site visitors can download it for free).

Linux International:
is a non-profit association of groups, corporations and others that work towards the promotion of growth of the Linux operating system and the Linux community. Linux is a Unix-like operating system, the core of which was created by Linus Torvalds. He released it to the world in 1991 and, since then, a large community of programmers around the world has contributed thousands of software tools and applications to be used freely under the Open Source philosophy.

As you can see, “free” software does not necessarily mean useless, or less than adequate. Quite the opposite has been observed over the past decade or so.

The DSS That I Use

The Decision Support System (DSS) I use does not run on my computer. It runs on the server of my “Web hosting and remote application provider” (RAP). It is part of the comprehensive tool set and services I get on top of the basic hosting service.

I use the Internet to access the DSS any time I need help in my decision making process. The more complex the situation, the more I turn to it for help.

Users beware!

Even the best DSS can produce bad or useless results. The one I use is not different!

However, I can guarantee that if you feed a DSS honest, verifiable facts about a given problem you want to solve, it will give you very useful results. Avoid feeding it “garbage” ... because it will simply cough up “garbage”. You have been “warned”.

Use a DSS and get a “PUBS” - Pure Unadulterated Blissful Smile - on your face!

Article Source : Decision Making and Problem Solving

About Author
Both Kamyar Shah & Claude Jollet are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Kamyar Shah has sinced written about articles on various topics from Internet Marketing, Home Management and Fitness. Decision MakingOr visit our Self Storage Blog. Kamyar Shah's top article generates over 110000 views. Bookmark Kamyar Shah to your Favourites.

Claude Jollet has sinced written about articles on various topics from Decision Making, Entrepreneurship and Writing. . Claude Jollet's top article generates over 3600 views. Bookmark Claude Jollet to your Favourites.
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