I have such fond memories of Arc Sundays. This year, I won't be going along but the first Sunday of October represents the end of summer and the start of winter for me, an ex-Parisian ex-pat who goes back to 98 and Sagamix. I remember Sakhee, Dalakhani, Bago, Hurricane Run and what on earth happened last year with Dylan Thomas? I still haven't understood that one - but some day the system has to break!
This Sunday's Arc promises to be one of the best in modern times, with the usual intriguing mix of 3-year olds - and the added bonus of a huge prize fund.
The British challenger, Duke of Marmalade, has been storming up the betting lists in the UK, to such an extent that he may even challenge Zarkava for favouritism come the off. However, I must underline the fact that this race runs true to form 8 times out of 10. Last year, in my opinion, was a blip caused by the fact that the French challenger, Zambezi Sun, just wasn't good enough.
- The winner is a 3 year old - The winner is a colt - The winner has also won the Prix Niel, raced in September - The winner is usually unbeaten - The winner has been trained in France
8 times out of 10 this will happen - and it worked for me 8 times out of 10. Remember Rail Link's brilliant victory ahead of Youmzain? He was a 3-year old French-trained colt. Hurricane Run the previous year? Ditto. Bago several years beforehand? Ditto.
This year, we have one prime contender who fits all of these criteria - Vision d'Etat - and he is worth 8/1 with some bookmakers. Now that's an amazing price for a race that runs so true to form you can call it 80% of the time.
The problem with this is that every Arc has a contender to my system. This year's contender is Zarkava and is good enough to convince me to review my betting choice. She won the Prix Vermeille so brilliantly that it continued her run of winning with two lengths to spare. She's an amazing filly and will take the colts on for the first time here. The Brits might be piling on Duke of Marmalade, but I'm piling on Zarkava.
For me, the race comes down to the two French horses I mentioned - and the challenges will come specifically from Soldier of Fortune, who looks to me to be a great Arc 4-year old and Youmzain, who has twice come second but now looks a little too old for this pacey race.
My tip is Vision d'Etat each way and Zarkava to win it - and if you're going for broke, put a fiver on Soldier of Fortune each way, too. Good horse. It's Arc Sunday, and I'm regretting not having bought a ticket to Paris for the weekend. If I miss anything about living there, it's the Arc - a once-a-year reminder of the end of summer, the beginning of winter, and of the greatness of horse racing.