In the latest Financial Times (FT) Index, produced by Acadametrics, the cost of homes increased by some 0.3 per cent during July to end the month at an average of 223,035 pounds. As a result, year-on-year house price growth was reported to have fallen by 0.1 percentage points to currently stand at nine per cent. Being the fifth consecutive month that annual rises have stayed between the 8.9 and 9.1 per cent range, Peter Williams, chairman of the firm, claimed that the sector is becoming evermore stable.
He suggested that such steadying was partially due to the property sector continuing to feel the effect of recent base rate rises from the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. Mr Williams commented: "The expectation of a slowing market as the year goes on remains given that the effect of successive interest rate increases continues to work its way through the system. The Bank's recent decision to hold on rates was welcome not least given the newly advised increased incidence of arrears and possessions and the continued uncertainty created by the difficulties in the US sub-prime market".
Over the duration of July, the capital was reported to be driving the surge in prices witnessed across England and Wales, with house values in the Greater London area revealed as rising by 15.2 per cent. Yet when the capital was taken out of the study, the national year-on-year growth was indicated as decreasing to 7.3 per cent. The findings also showed that a shortfall in residential property within the City had caused prices to surge by 38.1 per cent since 2006, with the north London borough of Islington thought in part to have seen increases of 24.7 per cent due to its closeness to the financial district.
However, there were some areas of the capital with increases more in tune with national statistics as Croydon and Barking & Dagenham posted hikes of 7.6 and 6.2 per cent each. Meanwhile, the south-west and south-east respectively have seen increases of 10.1 and 8.6 per cent due to a lack of housing supply pushing buyers away from London. On the other end of the scale, the north of England and West Midlands have posted the lowest rises in the last 12 months, as both increased by 4.2 per cent. According to the FT, the east Midlands witnessed an annual rise of just 5.6 per cent.
In related news, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) reported earlier this year that a rising number of prospective first-time buyers and existing homeowners alike were looking to take out a fixed-rate deal. In a bid to keep their secured loans repayments consistent, the CML revealed that an estimated 89 and 73 per cent of these consumers respectively opted for such a product over the course of May. However, the council reported that borrowers are still set to face pressure placed upon their personal finances as potential property purchases look to take out a mortgage at a record multiple to their annual income.
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The Council of Mortgage Lenders confidently expects 1.2m property sales to be completed this year. This is a rise in the 970,000 previously predicted. They also expect mortgage loans to be 10billion more than they had thought, at a total of 85billion.
All this sounds very upbeat and encouraging. New loans approval for house purchases in March 2006 was more than 25% higher than for the same period 12 months earlier.
However, first time buyers are finding it especially difficult to get on the first step of the housing ladder and in some areas, particularly the South East of England and London, prices have been fairly static. First timers are needed to set off the sequence of events from starter homes upwards.
In many other parts of the country, including the north of England and Wales, house sales have continued to be buoyant, levelling out the average price of homes. According to the Halifax Building Society the rate of growth is expected to even out across the UK and it is thought that prices will rise to in excess of three times the predicted level during 2006.
Capital Economics, the economics consultancy, have been predicting that property prices will start to drop in the UK market for the past few years and was of the opinion that prices would drop by 5% in 2006; however they appear to have been over cautious according to the above figures are correct. There is some cause for caution though.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders has revised its forecast regarding interest rates and now expects the cost of borrowing to rise, maybe from 4.5% to 4.75%. Their economist, Jim Cunningham, thinks that demand should remain vigorous in the coming months but says that confidence and activity are closely linked with interest movements and predictions. The result of this could be a more modest rise in house sales after the recent highs. He does, however, look forward to a better outlook for 2008.
Mortgage lenders are becoming increasingly more cautious regarding their lending levels and the size of mortgages they will fund. This in turn limits the budget of the potential buyers.
The problem is that interest rates have been exceptionally low in recent years, in fact at their lowest level since 1955 and this has created an exaggerated level of debt. A rise in the mortgage rate may result in more people falling behind with their mortgage payments and an increased likelihood of their homes being repossessed.
Some caution is needed in this market. Purchasers who have taken on large loans on the back of the rise in houses could find some of the above factors worrying. If interest rates rise there could be an adverse effect on house sales and people could find themselves with increasingly expensive mortgages whilst there may be some stagnation in the property market, if not actual falls in prices.
It seems to be a time to exercise some caution. Mortgage debt can creep up and your house could just be slightly less of the asset in once was. Take care.
Both Abbi Rouse & Michael Challiner are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
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